News and analysis

Inflation remains key sticking point preventing interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, ensuring Wednesday’s first quarter consumer price inflation report will be closely watched by financial markets, especially should it print on the softer side of expectations.

With the odds of a Fed cut arriving this year now in jeopardy, it is now over to the BOE, ECB or BOC to take the title as ‘first to begin easing’. And that brings Canadian CPI data into focus today for CAD traders.

Contrary to what you may expect, movements in AUD/USD on Tuesday may be dictated by the performance of Chinese financial markets rather than the latest batch of Chinese economic data including Q1 GDP.

USD/JPY is less than a day's trade from 155, a level an ex-FX diplomat warned could trigger an intervention if breached. WTI crude oil seems to have solid support above $84, to hint at a swing low.

A breakout from Bitcoin’s recent $61K-$73K range is inevitable – see the key levels to watch from here below!

Gold investors face key dilemma as rising geopolitical risks could keep gold supported on dips, but even higher yields continue to increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. Gold technical analysis point to overbought conditions, so a bit of short-term weakness should not come as surprise.

US stocks are set to open higher on Monday after steep losses last week. Following an attack by Iran on Israel over the weekend and comments from the US that it will not support a retaliatory attack by Israel, the market has calmed. Geopolitical developments will remain a key focus this week. US retail sales came in stronger than forecast, supporting the view that the Fed will keep rates high for longer. Goldman Sachs is set to rise after earnings.

The GBP/USD could be impacted significantly by UK CPI data this week. For now, markets are calm as Iran tensions have eased, but the situation remains volatile, likely to keep risk appetite low. The GBP/USD outlook is bearish as US dollar is likely to remain supported on any short-term dips.

EUR/USD holds above 1.0650 as the mood steadies, Oil prices fall as geopolitical tensions calm.