Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Fri 31 May)

USD/JPY continues to face further further downside pressure while EUR/USD, GBP/USD & AUD/USD have not broken below key supports.

EUR/USD – Bears are still finding hard to break below 1.1120

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  • Yesterday’s drop has managed to hold at the 1.1120 key short-term pivotal support as per highlighted in our previous report (click here for a recap). Several positive elements have been sighted as well; the shorter-term hourly RSI oscillator has staged a bullish breakout above a corresponding descending resistance in parallel with the minor price action resistance in place since 27 May 2019 high after a prior bullish divergence signal at its oversold region. Also, the pair has ended yesterday’s U.S. session with a daily bullish “Spinning Top” candlestick pattern.
  • Maintain bullish bias and a break above 1.1160 is likely to reinforce a potential corrective rebound towards the 27 May minor swing high of 1.1215 in the first step. However, an hourly close below 1.1120 resumes the bearish impulsive downleg sequence towards the next near-term support at 1.1060/1040 (Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster).

GBP/USD – 1.2600 remains the key support to watch

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  • The pair has managed to hold at the 1.2600 key short-term pivotal support and rebounded from the median line of the minor descending channel in place since 03 May 2019 high. Maintain bullish bias and added an upside trigger level at 1.2650 and a break above it reinforces a potential corrective rebound towards the 1.2750 intermediate resistance.
  • However, an hourly close below 1.2600 resumes the slide towards the major support at 1.2545/2530 (also the primary ascending range support in place since 07 Oct 2016 low).

USD/JPY – Further push down in progress

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  • The pair has staged a failure bullish break above the 109.70 key short-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous report and inched back down to retest this week low at around the 109.20 level. Interestingly, yesterday’s push up has stalled below the former minor ascending support from 13 May 2019 low and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous slide seen from 21 May high to 29 May 2019 low. Tolerate the excess and maintain the bearish bias with an adjusted short-term pivotal resistance now a 109.90 for a further potential push down towards the major support at 108.60/50.
  • However, an hourly close above 109.90 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards the next resistance at 110.65 (21 May 2019 swing high area).

AUD/USD – Bulls continue to defend 0.6900

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  • Continued to trade sideways and managed to hold at the 0.6900 key short-term pivotal support. Maintain bullish bias and added 0.6935 (minor range top) as the upside trigger level; a break above it reinforces the potential corrective rebound scenario to target the next intermediate resistance at 0.6985.
  • However, an hourly close below 0.6900 resumes the slide for a retest on 0.6860 before targeting 0.6830 next.

Charts are from eSignal

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