Chinese data impresses ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls

<p>The FX markets are trading this morning in their usual pre non-farm payrolls (NFP) consolidation period after yesterday’s Draghi inspired Euro rally. I don’t believe […]</p>

The FX markets are trading this morning in their usual pre non-farm payrolls (NFP) consolidation period after yesterday’s Draghi inspired Euro rally.

I don’t believe ECB President Draghi was neither hawkish or Dovish and sat nicely on the fence, swerving Italian political questions whilst making it clear that the ECB have all the necessary tools available in keeping the market guessing on a potential rate cut.

The single currency traded from 1.2990 to 1.3120 as the market was caught short with the main action seen in the crosses with EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY and EUR/AUD all showing short covering gains with the stand out $ move being against the JPY, as we make new highs above 95.00.

Chinese data impressed overnight ahead of Saturday’s release of inflation (CPI), Industrial production and retail sales data. Overnight the Chinese trade data revealed a trade surplus of $15.25 billion versus the consensus for a deficit of $6.9 billion with the standout component showing exports up 21.8% against the expected 8.1%.

German industrial production is likely to be largely ignored this morning with all eyes on the US  jobs report this afternoon. The ADP employment report on Wednesday showed the average monthly data above the 200k level and today’s all important NFP is expected to come in at 163k following the rise of 166k last month. The unemployment rate is expected to dip 0.1% to 7.8%. This is likely to be an important report as the market looks to gauge the risk on $ bid themes with the US data continuing to outperform raising the ‘taper’ stimulus debate again.



Supports 1.3040-1.3000-1.2960 | Resistance 1.3130-1.3220-1.3300


Supports 94.80-94.50-93.80 | Resistance 95.70-96.00-97.50


Supports  1.4940-1.4900-1.4875 | Resistance 1.5025-1.5080-1.5150

Build your confidence risk free
Join our live webinars for the latest analysis and trading ideas. Register now

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.