China growth forecast spooks risk on a busy week for data

<p>EUR/USD Range: 1.3173-1.3215 Support: 1.3160 Resistance: 1.3250 The single currency closed below the 21 day moving average at 1.3250 as we target the 1.3160 support […]</p>

EUR/USD

Range: 1.3173-1.3215
Support: 1.3160
Resistance: 1.3250

The single currency closed below the 21 day moving average at 1.3250 as we target the 1.3160 support level. The CFTC position data released on Friday showed the speculative market have reduced their short positions to 109,674 contracts from 142,159 a week earlier. Greece will need 75% of holders to participate to avoid forcing the deal through so-called “collective action clauses”. If participation is less than 66%, even the CACs would become invalid.

GBP/USD
Range: 1.5785 – 1.5845
Support: 1.5750
Resistance: 1.5900

Sterling finally succumbed to general USD strength on Friday and technically now has a bearish scenario as we closed below the 200 day moving average at 1.5893. Today we get the release of the UK services PMI data at 9.30 with expectations that the number will shrink slightly from 56 last month to 55. There is strong technical support seen in EUR/GPB at 0.8275 with a break signalling a move back below 0.8200.
USD/JPY
Range: 81.15-81.87
Support: 81.00
Resistance: 82.00

USD/JPY closed on Friday at 81.87 with solid barrier and exporter interest seen at 82.00. The pair has started the week under pressure with China cutting its growth forecast for 2012 from 8% to 7.5% putting the risk trade and equities under pressure thus forcing the cross JPY market lower. The key data for USD/JPY this week will be NFP on Friday with consensus looking for a rise of 206k.

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