China growth forecast spooks risk on a busy week for data

<p>EUR/USD Range: 1.3173-1.3215 Support: 1.3160 Resistance: 1.3250 The single currency closed below the 21 day moving average at 1.3250 as we target the 1.3160 support […]</p>


Range: 1.3173-1.3215
Support: 1.3160
Resistance: 1.3250

The single currency closed below the 21 day moving average at 1.3250 as we target the 1.3160 support level. The CFTC position data released on Friday showed the speculative market have reduced their short positions to 109,674 contracts from 142,159 a week earlier. Greece will need 75% of holders to participate to avoid forcing the deal through so-called “collective action clauses”. If participation is less than 66%, even the CACs would become invalid.

Range: 1.5785 – 1.5845
Support: 1.5750
Resistance: 1.5900

Sterling finally succumbed to general USD strength on Friday and technically now has a bearish scenario as we closed below the 200 day moving average at 1.5893. Today we get the release of the UK services PMI data at 9.30 with expectations that the number will shrink slightly from 56 last month to 55. There is strong technical support seen in EUR/GPB at 0.8275 with a break signalling a move back below 0.8200.
Range: 81.15-81.87
Support: 81.00
Resistance: 82.00

USD/JPY closed on Friday at 81.87 with solid barrier and exporter interest seen at 82.00. The pair has started the week under pressure with China cutting its growth forecast for 2012 from 8% to 7.5% putting the risk trade and equities under pressure thus forcing the cross JPY market lower. The key data for USD/JPY this week will be NFP on Friday with consensus looking for a rise of 206k.

Build your confidence risk free
Join our live webinars for the latest analysis and trading ideas. Register now

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.