Short-term technical outlook on USD/JPY (Thurs 21 Jun)
Key technical elements
- Since its 19 June 2018 minor swing low of 109.53, the USD/JPY has started to incher and broke above the minor descending trendline resistance from 15 Jun 2018 high now turns pull-back support at 110.20. These observations suggests that the earlier anticipated “residual push down” scenario within its minor pull-back phase as per highlighted in our “Daily Global Macro Trend Bias” report yesterday has been invalidated.
- The pair is now likely to resume its potential upleg phase within its on-going medium-term uptrend in place since 26 Mar 2018 low with its key short-term support now at 109.90 (the minor swing low area of 20 Jun 2018 & close to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going recovery from 19 Jun 2018 low of 109.53 to today, 21 Jun Asian session current intraday high of 110.64.
- Momentum readings are positive as seen from the daily and hourly RSI oscillators.
- The next significant short-term resistance stands at 114.40/60 which is defined by the minor swing high area of 21 May 2018, upper boundary of the short-term ascending channel in place since 19 Jun 2018 low, the median line of the aforementioned medium-term ascending channel and a Fibonacci projection cluster.
Key Levels (1 to 3 days)
Intermediate support: 110.20
Pivot (key support): 109.90
Resistances: 110.80/90 & 114.40/60
Next support: 109.55/25 (medium-term pivot)
Therefore as long as the 109.90 key short-term pivotal support holds, USD/JPY is likely to resume its potential upleg to retest the recent minor range resistance at 110.80/90 before targeting the 111.40/60 significant short-term/intermediate resistance zone.
On the other hand, failure to hold at 109.90 reinstates the deeper pull-back scenario towards the key medium-term pivotal support at 109.55/25 (lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel in place since 26 Mar 2018 low, minor swing low area of 08 Jun 2018 & Fibonacci retracement/projection cluster).
Charts are from eSignal
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