Australian earnings preview National Australia Bank

Q3 Update:

National Australia Bank (NAB) is one of the four largest financial institutions in Australia and provides a comprehensive and integrated range of banking and financial services, including wealth management. It reports a third-quarter trading update on the 14th of August.

While Coronavirus has impacted most sectors, the Australian banking industry has been particularly hard hit. NAB’s first quarter 2020 profit dropped by 51%, it raised $3.5B from investors and has set aside $807 million in provisions for bad debts from the economic slowdown.

Credit rating agencies have downgraded the outlook for the big 4 banks, while the banking regulator APRA confirmed banks should “cap dividends at 50% of earnings”. This comes as a relief to investors after APRA previously suggested banks should defer dividend payments entirely.  

As a guide, if NAB were to declare dividends at 50% of consensus statutory EPS estimates of 120 cents per share then the FY20 dividend will come in around 58.5 cents per share or 3.2% fully franked.

Technically, the rally from the March $13.44 low, displays corrective characteristics after an impulsive fall from the $27.49 Feb high. The break and close below trend channel support $17.75/70 area was a negative development and should NAB see a sustained break below $17.00 the next level of support is not until $15.00.  

To negate the weak technical backdrop, the NAB share price would need to return to the safety of the trend channel and then break/close above the resistance coming from recent highs $18.40/$18.50 area.

Source Tradingview. The figures stated areas of the 4th of August 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.  This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation