AUDUSD remains under pressure in a bearish trend

Australia CPI posts a gain however further easing may be needed.

Charts (6)

The US Dollar was bullish against most of its major pairs on Wednesday with the exception of the JPY. On the US economic data front, the Mortgage Bankers Association's Mortgage Applications rose 1.7% for the week ending October 23rd, compared to -0.6% in the previous week. Finally, Wholesale Inventories fell 0.1% on month in the September preliminary reading (+0.4% expected), compared to a revised +0.3% in the August final reading.

On Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 24th are expected to fall to 770K, from 787K in the week before. Continuing Claims for the week ending October 17th are expected to decline to 7,700K, from 8,373K in the prior week. GDP for the third quarter advanced reading is expected to soar to +32.0% on quarter, from -31.4% in the second quarter third reading. Finally, Pending Home Sales for September are expected to rise 3.0% on month, compared to +8.8% in August.       

The Euro was mixed against all of its major pairs. In Europe, France's INSEE has released October Consumer Confidence Index at 94 (vs 93 expected).

The Australian dollar fell the most against all of its major pairs after declining over 1% or 73 pips in Wednesday's trading. Australia's headline CPI rose by 1.6% in the third quarter which was slightly above the 1.5 estimate compared to a decline of 1.9% in the second quarter. The increase was driven by rebounds in childcare, automotive fuel and child education costs. Even with a gain in the CPI, Bloomberg economists believe the gain provides no reason for the RBA to cut back on further easing at its November board meeting.

  Looking at the daily chart of the AUD/USD the pair pulled back from a declining trendline that is acting as resistance as the bearish trend channel remains in play after the 20-day moving average crossed below the 50-day moving average back on the 14th of Oct. We anticipate further pressure down to test 0.700 support and ultimately 0.692 in extension. A break above 0.725 would be a strong bullish signal and a possible sign of a trend reversal to the upside. 

Source: GAIN Capital, TradingView

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