AUDUSD looks towards September highs

A breakout remains in play after RBA Gov Lowe's speech.


The US Dollar was under pressure against all of its major pairs on Monday. On the US economic data front, Empire Manufacturing unexpectedly dropped to 6.3 on month in November (13.5 expected), from 10.5 in October.  

On Tuesday, Retail Sales Advance for October is expected to increase 0.5% on month, compared to +1.9% in September. Finally, Industrial Production for October is expected to rise 1.0% on month, compared to -0.6% in September.               

The Euro was mixed against most of its major pairs. In Europe, no major economic data was released. 

The Australian dollar was higher against most of its major pairs with the exception of the NZD. 

Looking at Monday's gainers. The AUDUSD traded higher gaining just over 50 pips. Positive remarks regarding Australian interest rates from RBA governor Philip Lowe helped support the AUD. Looking back at the data, the AUD/USD has a tendency to move an average of 14 pips one hour after his speech. The pair ended bullish 60% of the time in the last 10 speeches. On Tuesday the RBA will release their meeting minutes which has an average impact of 21 pips one hour after release with a 58% tendency of being bearish on the pair. 

Looking at the chart, the AUD/USD remains bullish after breaking above a declining trend channel on Nov 3rd. The 20 and 50-day moving averages are starting to trend upward. If the pair can break above its short term consolidation with resistance at the 0.734 level we can expect a test of September highs near 0.742 and a continuation of the longer term trend that began in April. A break below 0.715 support would be bearish. 

Source: GAIN Capital, TradingView

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