ASX200 Christmas rally postponed?

10 days out from Christmas is usually around the time that the fund manager community starts to invest surplus cash holdings into the market in anticipation of the Christmas rally.

Commodities 6

While there is some incentive from a performance perspective to see their favourite stocks end the year on a high note, fund managers are no different from the rest of us. They are aware of the bullish seasonal trend at this time of the year and attempt to benefit from it.   

However, despite the commencement of vaccine rollouts in some countries, an acceleration in new coronavirus cases and a further deterioration in the Australia – China relationship may prompt second thoughts amongst the Australian fund manager community

On Wednesday, Germany will enter a new hard lockdown over Christmas, the same day that London will introduce Tier 3 restrictions. In the US, the NY Governor warned that the state is headed toward a second full lockdown if new infections and hospitalisations continue at their current pace.

Also overshadowing the Christmas cheer for the Australian equity market, confirmation yesterday that China has formally banned imports of all Australian coal.

Furthermore, the 40% rise in the price of iron ore over the past 2 months is reported to have prompted calls from within China for regulatory intervention. The 62% MySteel index fell $6.15 overnight, prompting keen interest to see how iron ore futures trade in today’s session on the Dalian exchange.

Following on from last week’s article on the ASX200 here and based on the events outlined above we are pleased that our suggestion to take some money off the table has worked out well thus far. More so given the bearish divergence on the RSI indicator following the index's second rejection from above the key 6700 level.

The preference remains to add to core longs on a dip back towards interim support 6400/6300 or wait for a sustained break above 6750 to confirm the arrival of the Christmas rally and that a move towards 7000 is underway.

ASX200 Christmas rally postponed?

Source Tradingview. The figures stated areas of the 15th of December 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.  This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

Build your confidence risk free
Join our live webinars for the latest analysis and trading ideas. Register now

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.