News and analysis

Rising inventories and a recovery in the US dollar are driving the latest bout of weakness in WTI and Brent crude oil prices.

US stocks are pointing to a modestly weaker start as the market continues to assess when the Federal Reserve may start to cut interest rates and by how much. Comments from Fed speakers yesterday raised questions over whether the Fed would cut at all in 2024. In the absence of economic data, Fed speakers remain under the spotlight today. Attention is also on earnings, with Uber set to open lower after posting a loss.

GBP/USD forecast: All eyes on BoE policy decision, before attention turns to UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data on Friday, before CPI data next week.

GBPUSD Forecast: doves add new lows to the GBPUSD pair as the British Pound Currency Index holds at a 6-month support zone

EUR/USD falls on concerns over the German recovery and hawkish Fed comments. The FTSE rises to fresh all-time highs ahead of tomorrow's BoE rate decision.

GBP/USD could extend its losses despite the US dollar 'rebound' already losing steam, whilst gold's base looks set for a bullish breakout and USD/JPY might achieve another leg higher before it tops. In my opinion, at least.

The Australian dollar handed back all of its pre-RBA gains, which was trying to notch up a fifth consecutive bullish day on anticipation of a more hawkish RBA. Yet the statement was not overly hawkish and Governor Bullock said the RBA “believe rates are at the right level to get inflation back to target”. Inflation was revised higher to show inflation falling back to target at a slower pace and the RBA remain “vigilant” to upside risks.

USD/JPY is bouncing between two previous supposed “lines in the sand” for Japan’s Ministry of Finance at 152.00 and 155.00, but the risks may be tilted to more upside from here.

Our crude oil analysis suggests prices may bounce back after having fallen sharply in recent weeks amid waning risks of supply disruptions in the Middle East.