News and analysis

The bigger the rally the harder the fall? Traders dabbling in the precious metals space may be asking that exact question with gold and silver extending their losses on Tuesday after a brutal start to the week.

There has been a shakeup at the top for gold, which opened the week at the high and closed the day at the low during its worst day in two years. We also look at a potential swing trade long on WTI crude oil.

Whether you want to call it a bullish hammer, dragonfly doji, false break or morning star, the price action on the AUD/USD daily suggests the path of least resistance is higher in the near-term.

GBP/USD remains in “sell rallies” mode, so bullish readers will want to be nimble against a broader backdrop that favors more downside from here.

Crude oil demand outlook will come into a sharp focus this week with the release of the global manufacturing PMI data, US GDP and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation this week. Still, Middle East tensions remain the key driver of short-term price action. Meanwhile, WTI technical analysis suggests the longer-term trend is still bullish.

US stocks are set to open higher after steep losses across the previous week. The S&P500 fell over 3% last week and the Nasdaq 6% amid expectations that the Fed will keep rates high for longer. Attention this week is turning to tech earnings, with Tesla, Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft reporting earnings. US core PCE and Q1 GDP data later in the week will also be in focus.

US GDP, Core PCE and BoJ policy are among the risk events this week for the USD/JPY currency pair, as the focus turns to sticky inflation and elevated interest rates narrative from Middle East concerns for now. USD/JPY technical analysis point to a potential rally above 155.00.

EUR/USD rises, but gains could be limited with ECB President Lagarde’s speech in focus. Oil falls as Middle East tensions ease & the demand outlook deteriorates.

Divergent economic and monetary policy outlooks for the US and UK continue to weigh on GBP/USD, making the case for downside a far easier sell than for upside right now.