In fairly quiet markets the ECB’s conditional backdrop for the euro last Thursday continued to dictate market sentiment yesterday. Further helping this was the latest commentary from Germany yesterday which indicated that Merkel’s government is supportive of the ECB’s action and it was in no doubt that the central bank is acting within its mandate. Today we get Italian GDP data and German factory orders, with the later used by many to reflect the slowdown in the eurozone.
Range: 1.5563 – 1.5608
The inflation report tomorrow will be the main catalyst for sterling as analysts widely expect the BoE to downgrade inflation expectations and growth, with most expecting further QE and a rate cut in the autumn. Today we see the release of manufacturing and industrial production data, with the Jubilee event looking to take the blame for a poor reading. The market is bearish so a slightly better data reading could see a short squeeze.
Overnight the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at 3.50%, in line with market expectations and market pricing. The accompanying RBA statement cited resilient domestic economic activity against a weak global backdrop, with seemingly little concern about currency strength. AUD/USD is broadly unchanged post-decision, trading at 1.0580 and the market is still pricing in one rate cut by early October.